Weather Premium Unwinds Across Grains

Chicago grain futures closed sharply lower as cooler forecasts, improving rain prospects and heavy speculative selling removed much of the weather premium built into recent prices.

September corn fell 12 1/2 cents to $4.51 3/4 per bushel, while December dropped 13 1/2 cents to $4.74. Respectable export inspections offered limited support as traders focused on broader rainfall coverage, although USDA’s four-point decline in crop conditions to 63% good to excellent may help stabilize the market.

November soybeans lost 39 3/4 cents to settle at $12.13 3/4. Wetter Midwest forecasts, weaker crude oil and aggressive long liquidation outweighed concerns surrounding recent heat. USDA lowered soybean conditions three points to 63% good to excellent, putting greater importance on whether forecast rains materialize during pod setting.

September Chicago wheat declined 18 cents to $6.60, while September Minneapolis spring wheat fell 8 cents to $7.06 1/4. Technical selling overwhelmed concerns about Black Sea logistics, European crop losses and weaker spring wheat conditions. Canadian durum exports increased to 117,000 tonnes last week, while commercial stocks rose to 692,400 tonnes. Grain futures now need stronger export demand or renewed weather stress to rebuild support.



Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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