The USDA confirmed one of the worst-kept market secrets on Monday, with American farmers expected to plant more corn and fewer soybeans this year.
The government’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings report pegged nationwide corn area for 2025 at 95.326 million acres, up 5% from last year’s 90.6 million and about 900,000 above the average pre-report trade guess. If accurate, it would be the largest US corn area since 2013, when farmers planted 95.365 million.
Meanwhile, national soybean intentions were reported at 83.495 million acres, down 4% from 87.1 million last year and roughly 300,000 below the average trade estimate. It is potentially the smallest American soybean area since 2020 when 83.354 million acres went into the ground.
Corn futures were trading ¼ to 4 cents higher this afternoon following the report’s noon hour release, while soybeans were 7-8 cents lower.
The corn estimate also topped the 94-million acre forecast released at the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February, while the soybeans fell below the 84-million projection from the forum.
Market signals had suggested US farmers would devote more acres to corn this year, with 2024-25 global ending stocks expected to hit multi-year lows. In its March supply-demand update, the USDA lowered its world corn ending stocks estimate for the current marketing year by 1.4 million tonnes from February to 288.94 million, almost 8% below the previous year’s 313.95 million. On the other hand, global soybean ending stocks – although revised lower from February in this month’s supply-demand update – remain record large, thanks mainly to large South American production.
As the largest exported American agricultural commodity, trade war implications also loom relatively larger for soybeans than for corn, especially when it comes to China. Earlier this month, China announced a 15% tariff on US imports of chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and a 10% tariff on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, and other agricultural products.
In the No. 1 production state of Iowa, corn planted area for 2025 is estimated at 13.5 million, up 600,000 or 5% from last year and the highest since 2020’s 13.6 million. Illinois producers said they intend to plant 11.1 million acres of corn this year, a 3% increase from last year’s 10.8 million. Indiana corn planted area is seen at 5.4 million acres, up 200,000 or 4% from 2024. Corn planted area is estimated 5% higher in Nebraska and Minnesota at 10.6 million and 8.6 million acres, respectively, while North Dakota corn area is seen 6% higher at 4.2 million acres.
Ohio is one of the handful of US states where corn acres are projected to decline in 2025, easing 4% to 3.25 million. However, Michigan producers said they intend to plant 2% more acres to 2.3 million acres.
As for soybeans, planted area in the largest production state of Illinois is estimated down 4% from last year to 9.6 million acres, although still up from 10.35 million in 2023. Iowa soy area is forecast 4% lower as well, down to 9.6 million acres, while Indiana is estimated 2% lower at 5.7 million acres.
Nebraska soybean planted area is projected 6% lower at 5 million acres, with Minnesota down 5% at 7 million. At an estimated 6.2 million acres, North Dakota soybean planted area is estimated to fall 6%.
Ohio producers are seen bucking the nationwide trend on soybean too, with state soy planted area estimated up 1% from last year to 5.1 million. Michigan soy area, at 2.15 million acres, is projected 2% lower.
