The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. corn has tightened from last month due to a higher export forecast, reflecting continued strength in foreign demand.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Tuesday, the USDA pegged 2025-26 American corn exports at 3.3 billion bu, up 100 million from last month. The increase is based on confirmed sales and shipment data through January, which suggest exports during the September-to-January period are likely to exceed 1.3 billion bu, the USDA said.
If realized, U.S. corn exports would rise 15.4% from the 2.858 billion bushels shipped a year earlier.
With no changes to supply and total use increasing, U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are now forecast at 2.127 billion bu, down 100 million from January - still comfortably above last year’s 1.551 billion bu.
The season-average farm price is unchanged from last month at $4.10/bu.
Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were looking for no major changes in the corn supply-demand sheet, with the average guess for ending stocks at 2.215 billion bu. Corn futures were trading fractionally higher this afternoon.
Globally, the 2025-26 coarse grain outlook is largely steady, with production estimated at 1.59 billion tonnes. Foreign corn output edged slightly lower, as reduced production in Mexico was mostly offset by gains in the European Union. Corn import forecasts were raised for several countries, including Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon and Vietnam, while EU imports were trimmed.
South American corn production estimates were left unchanged from January, with Brazil projected at 131 million tonnes, down 5 million from last year, and Argentina steady at 53 million tonnes, versus 50 million in 2024-25 Ukraine’s corn production estimate also held at 29 million tonnes, though the export projections was reduced 1 million to 22 million, still up from 20.02 million a year earlier
Global corn ending stocks for 2025-26, at 288.98 million tonnes, are down 1.9 million from January and below 294.35 million in 2024-25.
