Both US and global wheat ending stocks were revised lower in the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Friday.
US ending stocks were trimmed to 890 million bu, down 8 million from June as a stronger export outlook helped offset mixed production revisions. Despite the cut, ending stocks remain 5% higher than last year, signaling a slightly more comfortable—but still tightening—domestic balance sheet. The average trade guess for US wheat ending stocks ahead of the report was 894 million bu.
Globally, the wheat market continues to tighten. World ending stocks for 2025-26 were lowered by 1.2 million tonnes to 261.5 million tonnes, following reductions in Canada and the EU. This marks the third consecutive year of declining global stocks, down from 269.2 million in 2023-24 and 257.2 million in 2024-25.
Total US all wheat production for 2025 is forecast at 1.929 billion bu this month, up 8 million from June, with higher yields compensating for reduced acreage. The average all wheat yield is pegged at 52.6 bu/acre, up 1 bu from June and the second highest on record.
The production breakdown shows total winter wheat output at 1.345 billion bu, down 36 million from last month and nearly 1% below last year. Hard Red Winter output is estimated at 755 million bu, down 4% from last month, while Soft Red Winter was lowered 2% from last month to 337 million. White Winter, at 254 million bu, was essentially unchanged. Notably, the US winter wheat yield is projected at 54.2 bu/acre— up from last month and 2.5 bu higher than 2024, trailing only the 2016 record.
American durum wheat production for this year is forecast at 79.7 million bu, down less than 1% from 2024, with yields averaging 38.7 bu/acre and harvested area at 2.06 million acres, unchanged from the USDA acreage report released on June 30, 2025, but up 1% from 2024.
Other spring wheat production is pegged at 504 million bu, down 7% from 2024, primarily due to a 6% decline in harvested area and a slightly lower average yield of 51.7 bu/acre - still the second highest on record. Harvested area is expected to total 9.75 million acres, unchanged from the acreage report, but 6% below 2024.
On the demand side, the slightly larger production estimate, along with a larger old-crop carryin – up 10 million from last month to 851 million bu - was more than offset by a 25 million bu increase in exports to 850 million.
World wheat production is now projected at 808.55 million tonnes, slightly down from last month as gains in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU were outweighed by a 1-million cut to Canadian output to 35 million and smaller declines in Ukraine and Iran.
The US season-average farm price for wheat was held steady from June at $5.40/bu, down modestly from last year’s $5.52.
