A look at the North American drought monitor heading into the 2024 planting season reveals a shift in some of the worst drought conditions compared to a year earlier.
As the map for February 2024 below shows, the most intense North American drought is now plaguing Mexico. Much of that drought appears to have migrated southward from the US southern Plains, which although still impacted by abnormal dryness and drought, is vastly improved over a year earlier.
Meanwhile, extreme drought in Nebraska last year has also improved, while conditions have deteriorated in Iowa, particularly in the northeastern part of the state.
Moving northward into the Prairies, widespread moderate and severe drought has largely remained unchanged from last year but morphed into pockets of extreme and exceptional drought in parts of Alberta.
The drought in Mexico has forced water rationing in Mexico City, one of the world’s largest cities, with some experts suggesting it could as early as June when there is not enough water to pump out to parts of the metropolis of 22.5 million.
In a report this week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) pegged 2023-24 Mexican corn production at 23.2 million tonnes, down 17% on the year, in part due to “severe and exceptional drought conditions.” However, the same FAS report predicted a 7% rebound in corn output for 2024-25, based on a higher planted area amid producer optimism for drought recovery.
At the end of February 2023, moderate to exceptional drought was affecting almost 26% of the entire area of North America, little changed from the previous two years. (An estimate was not available for the end of February 2024). As recently as February 2020, moderate to exceptional drought was only impacting about 5% of North America.
