Agriculture Canada has raised its old-crop canola export forecast from last month, although projected 2025-26 ending stocks are just marginally tighter.
In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates released late Friday afternoon, Ag Canada revised its export forecast up 100,000 tonnes from last month to 8.4 million. Although that is still well down from 9.379 million tonnes the previous year, it marks a further improvement from last fall, when the government was only projecting exports at 7 million amid punishing Chinese import tariffs implemented in August.
However, the increase in export demand had little impact on the 2025-26 ending stocks forecast. Ending stocks are estimated at 2.707 million tonnes this month, down just slightly from 2.72 million in May amid a largely offsetting cut in expected feed, waste, and dockage to 150,000.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said Canadian canola export volumes from January to about mid-June have been strong, given the improved market access to China – after Canada and Beijing agreed on a deal that led to a sharp reduction in the latter’s canola import tariffs in March. Strong demand this marketing year from other destinations such as the EU, Japan, Mexico, and Pakistan have also helped buttress Canadian canola exports in 2025-26, Ag Canada said.
In fact, Canadian Grain Commission data show canola movement reached a crop-year high of 1.1 million tonnes in May, up 24% from April. If accurate, 2025-26 canola exports of 8.4 million tonnes would be 10% below last year but still 5% ahead of the five-year average.
With the slightly smaller carryin from the 2025-26 crop year, Ag Canada also trimmed its 2026-27 canola ending stocks estimate, down to 1.306 million tonnes from 1.319 million in May.
Ag Canada made no other changes to its primary 2026-27 canola supply-demand estimates from last month, holding production, exports, crush at 19.2 million, 7.5 million, and 13 million tonnes, respectively.
Ag Canada’s 2025-26 and 2026-27 average canola price estimates were also unchanged from May at $690 and $695/tonne.
