The outlook for 2025-26 canola is heavier this month due to a markedly larger production estimate.
In monthly supply-demand estimates released late Wednesday afternoon, Agriculture Canada pegged this year’s Canadian canola crop at 20.1 million tonnes, up sharply from last month’s forecast of 17.8 million. If accurate, it would be 4.7% or almost 1 million tonnes above a year earlier, and the largest crop since 2018 at 20.7 million.
With the larger crop, Ag Canada now sees the 2025-26 total canola supply at 21.381 million tonnes, compared to 19 million in July but still down from 22.355 million in 2024-25.
On the demand side, Ag Canada raised its 2025-26 canola export forecast by 1 million tonnes from last month to 7 million – still down from 9.519 million a year earlier- and bumped up the crush to an estimated 11.8 million, 300,000 higher than last month and last year.
But even with greater demand, this month’s larger production and total supply still pushed expected 2025-26 canola ending stocks up to 2.2 million, double the previous month and above 1.181 million in 2024-25.
At $675/tonne, the average expected 2025-26 canola price was dropped from $725 in July and closer to the 2024-25 average of $677.
Ag Canada left its canola planted and harvest area estimates unchanged from last month, meaning the entire larger production estimate is based on a higher average yield of 41.9 bu/acre, up sharply from 37.1 bu in July and 38.7 bu a year ago.
The higher yield forecast is based on data from Ag Canada’s Canadian Crop Yield Forecast (CCYF), which incorporates remote sensing and climate data up to July 31, 2025. The CCYF suggests the production of all principal field crops will increase modestly by 1% year-over-year and be higher than the five-year average by 7%. (See more here)
Ag Canada acknowledged last week’s Chinese announcement of a prohibitive 75.8% duty against imports of Canadian canola but said the potential loss of that export market - while bearish for prices - is expected to be “somewhat muted” by an expansion in domestic crush capacity and “substitutability” of export markets.
