Agriculture Canada has bumped its 2024-25 canola ending stocks slightly higher from last month. However, supplies remain tight overall, and the price outlook has risen.
Updated supply-demand estimates released Wednesday pegged canola ending stocks for the current marketing year at 1.3 million tonnes, up 50,000 from the January estimate but still well down from 2.748 million in 2023-24 and potentially a new 12-year low.
This month’s entire increase in ending stocks is due to a higher import estimate, which was revised up 50,000 tonnes to 150,000. Ag Canada attributed the increase in imports to “strong industrial demand.” Projected 2024-25 canola exports and crush remained unchanged from last month at 7.5 million and 11.5 million tonnes, respectively.
Meanwhile, Ag Canada raised its 2024-25 average canola price forecast by $35 from January to $670/tonne (No. 1 Track Vancouver), versus $715 for the previous year.
The February supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Feb. 7 grain stocks report which pegged total Canadian canola stocks as of Dec. 31 at 11.382 million tonnes, down 19.2% from a year earlier. Excluding the 2021 drought year when stocks dropped to 9.338 million tonnes, it was the lowest Dec. 31 canola stocks level since 2012 at just over 8 million.
Based on the now-larger ending stocks estimate for 2024-25, Ag Canada also raised its new-crop canola ending stocks forecast by 50,000 tonnes to 1 million. However, all other 2025-26 canola supply-demand estimates were otherwise unchanged from last month, including expected production at 17.5 million tonnes, down about 2% on the year.
